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Survival Risk Quotient: 72
Captain Dave's Survival Risk Quotient attempts to rank how close we are to an all-out global disaster, also know as TEOTWAWKI, or "the end of the world as we know it." 100 is TEOTWAWKI, 50 is September 10, 2001 and 0 is a peaceful world with no threats, or what it would have been like for Adam and Eve without the Serpent.

The quotient was revised on January 4, 2009 to reflect the global economic conditions, our socialist government, and external threats. Read our previous advice on surviving the economic downturn.

Here are Captain Dave's 2010 predictions and how you can prepare to weather the storms we may experience in 2010:

Prediction One: The economy will get worse, unemployment will rise, more people will lose their homes, and your buying power will deteriorate.

The economy is like a man poised on the brink of a cliff with one foot on solid ground and one foot stepping outward over a steep drop-off. The footing seems pretty solid, but once the weight shifts forward just a tiny bit, the economy will topple into a death spiral. When this shift takes place (This year? Three years? Maybe as long as five years?) and how far the fall will be are the real questions.

The economic news coverage in the major media often sounds good, as if we are in the midst of an economic recovery, but the fundamentals are still troubling. Sure, there are hopeful signs, but I predict that it will be a long time before most of us see an improvement in our personal economic situations. The so-called "green shoots" are going to wither because we are in the economic equivalent of a drought. There is just no liquidity to be had as every bank, company or individual with money is doing everything they can do hold on to it. This lack of liquidity is stifling consumer spending and business investment which are the most critical legs in the gross domestic product.

I also foresee a significant chance of a "double dip" recession in 2010. I believe we will see another financial crisis, leading to a wave of failures, collapses, closures, and bankruptcies. You can expect rising unemployment, rising prices, falling stock markets, more foreclosures, and panic in the government. That panic will lead to more ill-conceived stimulus spending and rescue packages that achieve little other than the waste of shrinking tax revenues and add to an unhealthy Federal deficit.

As a result of added stimulus and deficits, the dollar will continue to get weaker as overseas investors lose confidence in our ability to pay back our debts. They will turn up their nose and the dollar and diversify into other currencies as well as commodities and precious metals. (This is already happening, but will get worse in 2010.) Uncertainty and lack of confidence in the dollar will cause other countries to sell our debt, and these fire sale prices which will devalue the dollar even further.

This weakening of the dollar will drive up the cost (in dollars) of commodities and raw materials – including oil, steel, aluminum, copper and so forth -- as well as anything we import, including such basic products as food, clothing, household goods, and electronics. Food prices, which are heavily dependent on the cost of oil (for fertilizer and transportation), will also increase. In short, pretty much anything we buy will get more expensive. This will result in inflation, but the government will try to hide it by manipulating the CPI data. So you and I will feel inflation, but it will not be reported as such, at least not for several months.

As people have to spend more money on food and energy, they will have less to spend on discretionary spending, which creates a downward economic spiral that is self-perpetuating. The lack of discretionary spending will result in a falling sales and profits at most companies, which will lead to declining stock market values, store closures, more bankruptcies, rising unemployment, and a crisis in the commercial real estate market. The loss of jobs and rising unemployment will result in even more foreclosures, which will hurt the banking industry even more (see below for more.)

In short: I believe that the economic recovery bandied about by the mainstream media is wishful thinking and will not last. My advice is to use this time of apparent good news to prepare for another wave of bad economic news globally and especially in the U.S. and UK. If you were caught by surprise in 2008, don't repeat that mistake in 2010.

What you can do:

• Stock up on things you may need in the future, including food, paper products, health and beauty aids, clothing, tools and parts, etc. Don't put this off until it is too late. If you can only scrape together a little cash, spend it all on canned and dry food that can store a year or more.
• Avoid things you want and buy things you need or will need in the next three to 24 months. Trust me, you don't need a big screen TV. You may need new tires on your old car, a warm winter coat, a water filter, etc. Buy smart.
• Increase your food self sufficiency. Plan to plant a garden in 2010. Identify wild food sources nearby that you can harvest. Consider raising livestock. In addition to traditional small livestock animals such as chickens and goats, rabbits and pigeons can be raised in most cities with very little space requirements.
• Make any large purchase soon. If you plan to make a significant purchase in the next year – such as a vehicle, some solar panels, or a major home repair or improvement – do it now, before prices increase.
• Buy ammunition now while the costs are down and availability is up. We are enjoying a moderate respite from the ammunition shortages of early 2009. (I saw cases of .380 in a gun store just last week – first time in 13 months.) Lead, copper and brass are going to increase in price, and so will your ammo, so stock up. If you reload, buy components before they disappear again.
• Buy gold and silver coins to preserve your wealth, if you are lucky enough to have some to preserve! Take possession of the physical assets – do not accept certificates or let someone else hold the bullion for you. Keep it hidden close at hand or buried in the yard.
• Invest in international stocks, precious metals, oil and energy. If you have a 401k or IRA, shift a portion of your funds into these categories. Avoid municipal bonds and treasuries. Do some research but avoid decisions made in panic.
• Look for ways to generate additional income. Develop a side business, hone a skill, or make or accumulate something that can be used to barter.
• If you are in danger of losing your home, arrange alternate living quarters before the Sheriff arrives to kick you out. Relocate to somewhere less expensive. If you are going to lose your home, don't make partial payments; cut your losses and stop throwing good money after bad.

Prediction Two: Major international business, U.S. States, and foreign countries will go bankrupt and default on their debt. Some will be rescued; some will not be.

We are already seeing problems of this nature in Iceland, Dubai, Greece and Spain, but in 2010 much larger, more important countries could be at risk, including Italy and Germany. California, with a credit rating close to that of junk bonds, will probably go early if they do not receive a federal bail out, but countries like the Ukraine and Latvia are also in trouble. If the double dip comes as feared, even Great Britain could default. If the dollar depreciates and this country continues its aggressive spending while creating dollars out of thin air, even the U.S. could reach a point where it can no longer raise the revenue needed to service its debts.

Problems with small municipalities are too many to count. On a local level, municipalities are laying of personnel, having police cars repossessed, and cutting back on services because their tax base has eroded.

How did we reach this point? By electing politicians who never ran a company, have no business experience, and probably cannot balance their own checkbook.

When companies see their revenues falling, they reduce headcount, close the least profitable factories, pare product lines, and take other drastic actions to cut expenses. Governments used to cut back when times got tough, but that is no longer the case. Today's generation of politicians and administrators don't trim budgets; they simply raise taxes or borrow more money. This makes things worse for the taxpayers who have less money to spend on rent, food and the all important "consumer spending" that makes up 70% of our economy. The result of higher taxation is less money in the marketplace which results in more companies going out of business and higher unemployment.

It is important to keep in mind that governments cannot create enough jobs to end unemployment, but government can create an environment in which entrepreneurs and business people create jobs. Lately, government has been discouraging or penalizing job creation by making it expensive for a small business to survive. Increased regulatory burdens, higher taxes, and added expenses to meet government requirements are all disincentives to small business men and take up dollars that could be used to hire added personnel.

Every time a country, a state, or a Fortune 500 company goes bankrupt, there will be fewer institutions willing to invest in the sovereign debt of other countries. This will drive up the cost of borrowing, which will simply bring about the next bankruptcy that much more quickly. If we reach a point at which no one is wiling to lend the U.S. money, the government will hit a brick wall. It will either have to admit it can no longer afford its current programs and cut the budget or it will have to admit that the Fed is creating dollars out of thin air. Either of these actions will kick off an economic collapse worse than we saw in 2008.

What you can do:

• Sell your municipal bonds, treasury bills, financial stocks and stocks in companies that have large government contracts (with the possible exception of defense companies).
• Get out of the U.S. dollar, the Yen and the British pound, both of which will likely follow the dollar down. Invest in precious metals, commodities, or other international currencies and stocks, such as the Australian dollar. If you have large amounts of wealth, consider buying real estate – especially farmland – and diamonds and other investment grade gemstones. These may not appreciate over time, but they should do a decent job of retaining their value through and after a collapse.
  

Prediction Three: There will be bank runs, bank failures, and the government will restrict access to your money, including your retirement savings.

Expect banks to collapse as banks who hold these supposedly secure treasury notes, municipal bonds and other government debt suffer losses. Combined with underwater housing loans, a rising tide of defaults and foreclosures, and a crashing commercial real estate market, the above-referenced bankruptcies of governments is likely to be the straw the breaks the camels bank.

Any sudden problem could trigger a bank run that could cause hundreds of banks and other institutions to collapse. Keep in mind that the FDIC is out of money, so the government must borrow funds to guarantee your deposits, another example of a downward spiral.

If the banking system collapses, the government will suddenly own those assets. Good luck getting them back while they have any value. Don't be surprised if your money or investments are nationalized and replaced with government IOUs.

What you can do:

• Empty your safe deposit boxes of anything you might need in the next year or two. Keep a good record of anything else you leave in it. Buy a safe to store your precious goods or hide them in multiple locations Be discreet and don't tell anyone.
• Don't leave large amounts of money in the bank. In a serious bank run, the government could order a bank holiday in which no one could access funds for days or weeks, or possibly could limit your withdrawals to a minimum amount per day. Confiscation or consolidation (in which the government replaces $10 of your dollars with one of their "new dollars" could also take place.)
• Keep some cash on hand.No one knows what credit card companies will do during a bank holiday. No one knows if debit cards will work. So plan for the worse and have some cash to fill the gas tank or buy groceries. Sure, debit cards are convenient, but they are fallible and controllable. Cash is king.
• Increase your layers and levels of personal security. Protect yourself, your family, your residence, and your property by adding additional security. You already have good locks? Get an alarm system. Already have an alarm? Get a large dog. Already have a dog? Put up a fence to keep people from easily approaching your house. Form an informal neighborhood watch in which you and your neighbors agree to look out for each other. Already have a gun? Go to the range and practice. Buy more ammunition and possibly another weapon to arm a family member or friend who is not so well prepared.
  

Prediction Four: An increasingly partisan Congress will continue to waste our money and build the deficit, which will simply make the economy worse.

After the economy takes a nose dive, there will be a rash of new attempts by an increasingly desperate congress and administration to help the economy by "spending our way out of a recession." This will show some temporary short term benefits (like the Cash for Clunkers program) but will actually make things worse and delay any recovery. These programs waste money, drain government coffers, and increase the deficit, which will just exacerbate the problems discussed above. They will also cost increase taxes and result in higher costs for all Americans.

So we will see more bail outs, more programs to try to stimulate the recovery, and more tax dollars wasted on programs that spend $300,000 to create one $30,000 job. All the while, taxes on middle class Americans and small businesses will increase and Congress and the president will continue to sell us manure while telling us that it does not stink.

The debt load will become unsustainable as the recession results in lower tax revenue, requiring more deficit spending, which will result in yet another downward spiral. The only way to stop this spiral is to cut government spending, eliminate programs and reduce the footprint of government. That will not happen under the current administration or congress, no matter how desperate things get. In fact, the idea that the current administration is using the situation to gain power and control should be given increased credence.

I also predict that at some point before the mid-term elections in November 2010, the Democrats will suddenly embrace the idea of cutting government and slashing budgets. This attempts to close the barn door after the dollars have all escaped will be too little, too late. They will also result in no significant legislation as it will simply be political posturing leading to the election, not a serious change of heart.

What you can do:

• Vote the bums out. About the only thing that will stop this spending is to elect fiscally conservative candidates to congress. We need representatives with the balls to make unpopular decisions, cut back expensive programs, cut budgets, reduce the size of government, and reduce regulation.
• Don't be fooled by a politician's rhetoric, promises and lies. Look at their behavior, voting history, and any legislation they have sponsored. I have never seen a president say one thing and do another as much as this one has, and I have never seen so much of the media -- and as a result the public -- turn a blind eye to his breaking of multiple campaign promises.
• Take advantage of the government's largess, if you are in a position to do so. You might as well get some of your tax money back before these programs go broke. If you are unemployed or underemployed, apply for food stamps. If you can get green energy tax credits by improving your home or investing in solar power, do it.
  

Prediction Five: Economic turmoil, food shortages, rapidly rising prices, and political unrest will result in protest, strikes, riots, and civil unrest around the world.

Last year, rising prices and rumors of rice shortages caused food riots in a number of countries. Expect more riots and protests as food prices rise and food becomes scarcer. Not only are drought and other weather conditions cutting food harvests in Australia and Argentina, but a three year drought in California is hurting food production it the U.S. Plus, as prices rise due to inflation, it will become harder for people to afford to feed their family. This will result in protests against the governments and ruling parties, especially in poorer, less developed countries.

But the cost of food is just one reason there could be unrest. Economic disparities between rich and poor, rising taxes, mass layoffs from what were formerly "government protected" jobs, and dissatisfaction with the current leadership will result in civil disobedience and unrest in countries across Europe, Asia and North America. Some of these will be sporadic and short lived, but others will be well organized campaigns aimed and regime change. The danger here is not tea party type protests and well organized marches, but rock-throwing, fire-starting, smash-and-loot riots that sends troops into the street and endanger nearby residents and business owners.

We are already seeing this kind of protest in unlikely places such as North Korea when they re-valued their currency, and in Iran, where students and organized opposition groups continue to confront the government. Protests driven by unions and economics are already taking place in parts of Europe, including Greece.

In many countries with repressive regimes, protests are met with a crack down on protestors that causes life to become worse for everyone, even those who had nothing to do with the protests. This just makes more people join the protest, creating another downward spiral.

In the U.S., protests are likely to be peaceful unless there is massive inflation, a collapse of our banking system, or financial ruin. In that case, all bets are off as we could see protests that turn violent and give way to riots and opportunistic looting on a massive scale. The U.S. has a history of passive civil disobedience rather than active civil unrest, but it really depends on how angry people are. And there is no better way to make a person angry than to take from him his way of life, remove him from his home, threaten his children with hunger, and leave him no peaceful path to recovery.

If we see a total collapse of the economic system in which the trucks stop delivering goods, expect chaos, death and destruction starting in heavily populated areas and spreading outward as masses of people become locusts looking for the next food source to strip.

What you can do:

• Avoid protests. Try to avoid areas where a protest is likely to take place. For example, don't visit city hall they day the unions are scheduled to hold a protest out front. Avoid getting swept up into a protest, stuck in traffic and unable to navigate because of a protest, or trapped in your home or business along protest route, especially if it turns into a riot. If there has been civil unrest in major cities but not yet in yours, consider leaving the city for a safer location.
  
  (Please note that I am fully in support of protests against a government that is violating constitutional boundaries, but I would remind you that protests can lead to arrest, increased government scrutiny, and -- should things get out of hand -- injury or death. There is a time we may all need to become Minute Men and join the revolution, but until you make a personal decision to do so, participating in a protest that has the potential to become a riot is neither safe or a good way to keep a low profile and stay safe.)
• Stock weapons and ammunition. If you are a home owner or business owner in an area where a riot breaks out, battle rifles and shotguns may be your best chance of surviving. As the Korean merchants proved in the Rodney King riots, superior firepower can deter an angry mob. And should society break down to the point that there is no law and order, only those strong enough to enforce order will have any chance of survival. Even if you are not in the path of destruction, be prepared to defend yourself, your family and your stuff from marauders.
• In the advent of a total break down, also referred to as the end of the world as we know it (TEOTWAWKI), keep a low profile, partner with friends and family for mutual support, act proactively to protect yourself. Read the book Patriots by James Wesley, Rawles for an example of how to do this.)
  

Prediction Six: Iran will be involved in a war, possibly with us.

If the world is lucky, Iran will be torn asunder by a civil war. Opposition groups will grow stronger and challenge the current regime. Encouraged and perhaps aided covertly by the U.S. and neighboring countries, Iran will have a second revolution.

If regime change does not come about due to internal strife, Iran is likely to become embroiled in a war with one of its neighbors and/or with the U.S. At some point, something will have to be done about Iran's nuclear ambitions – either by the U.S. or by Israel. France is talking big, which is a nice change, but is unlikely to act unilaterally. China and Russia will go out of their way to stall any UN action and to try to delay any proactive U.S. attack. Obama will let them delay his action, possibly until it is too late to act preemptively.

Iran is like a miniature version of the old Soviet Union in the 1960s and '70s, and there should be no mistake that we are in the middle of a Cold War with them, a cold war that is likely to heat up at any time. Like the USSR, Iran fights proxy wars, as they are doing in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen. They have a few "client" states or organizations such as Hezbollah, and a few friends like North Korea and Venezuela. Yet they are generally disliked or feared by their neighbors. No one would really mind if they were taken down a few notches or even wiped off the map, but no one really wants to deal with the mess that would left over and the turmoil that would be created in the Middle East. At such a time that it becomes easier to deal with the fallout from a war with Iran than it is to deal with their belligerent threats and continued existence, they will be attacked and destroyed. It is just a matter of time. And we are hopeful that such a time will arrive before they nuke Israel or sell a nuke to terrorists that will bring it to the U.S.

What you can do:

• Prepare for higher gas prices. Higher prices at the pump and possible shortages will be a natural consequence of war with Iran. If you plan on storing gasoline, buy it before prices rise, then treat it for storage and rotate it.
• Prepare for a potential nuclear conflict. Iran is one of the hot spots around the globe that could either use or be the target for nuclear weapons. The key to surviving a limited nuclear conflict outside the U.S. is not to panic. Read more details about this elsewhere on the site.
• Stock up and prepare to batten down the hatches. A shooting war in the Middle East will result in major economic unrest, possible terrorist attacks and a very tense situation in the U.S. Avoid international travel and limit domestic air travel.

Prediction Seven: The U.S. will be a victim of terrorists attacks.

The threat of a terrorist attack has never gone away, just dropped off the front pages and slipped from the minds of most people. Yet Al Qaida and other radical fundamentalist groups are still out there, planning and plotting different ways to kill Americans, exacerbate our economic problems, and get revenge for the damage we have done to their organization.

Al Qaida and their allies are just one front in the war on terror. Iran is a state sponsor of multiple terrorist groups. While many of these are focused on Israel, suicide bombers could wreak havoc in the U.S. should we commence active hostilities against Iran. Iran could also supply nuclear weapons to a terrorist group.

A well-organized terrorist attack planned and sponsored by Al Qaida and/or Iran might involve multiple near-simultaneous attacks, they could target major landmarks or population centers, or items of significant national interest (such as the new York Stock Exchange, the Golden Gate Bridge, or the Statue of Liberty, just to name a few).

What you can do:

• Avoid international travel and avoid target locations. Not all terrorist attacks take place at home, but Americans are often targeted in Europe, Asia and the Middle East. If you must travel, avoid touristy places like night clubs. At home, avoid likely target areas.
• In the advent of a terrorist attack, avoid similar places and situations. Simply put, if terrorist bomb a subway in New York, stay off the subway in other cities as there could be similar attacks planned for the same day. If they attack a mall, stay out of malls.
• Keep your eyes open. The Christmas Day Bomber was stopped in part by the quick actions of a fellow passenger. The terrorist had been sitting directly above the plane's main fuel tank when he attempted to set his explosive off, but quick action by a heroic passenger, stopped him before the fire could spread behind his seat. Keep alert! You may find yourself in a position to stop an attack or at least alert authorities to something suspicious.

In summation, expect 2010 to be a difficult year, at best. Prepare for it while you still can.